A potential superpower is a sovereign state or other polity that is speculated to be or have the potential to become a superpower (a sovereign state or supranational union that holds a dominant position and can exert influence and project power on a global scale through economic, military, technological, political, or cultural means).^[1][2][3]

The United States is currently the only country whose status as a superpower finds broad consensus,^[4][5] with some accounts explicitly calling it the only one.^[6][7][8][9] Since the mid-2020s, China has increasingly been referred to as a superpower in its own right (including by U.S. President Donald Trump). The European Union and India have been discussed as potential superpowers of the 21st century; Japan and Russia are former candidates. In spite of the perceived decline of the United States, it remains a superpower primarily due to its alliances, military capacity, soft power, and economic influence and heft.^[10]

China

China's status as a superpower has been the subject of great academic and geopolitical debate. In recent years, the view that China has become an established superpower has strengthened,^[11] framing the country as the primary rival to the United States in the 21st century.^[11] While a 2012 Lund Critical Debate at Cornell University concluded that "China is not yet a superpower",^[12] a growing number of proponents have highlighted China's modern military, regional influence, cultural export, rapid advancements in artificial intelligence, and total economic and manufacturing volume as signs of global dominance in the 2020s. By the middle of the decade, prominent international figures such as US Secretary of State Marco Rubio have referred to China as a superpower.^[13] However, opponents suggest that China's domestic challenges still persist: an ageing and shrinking population, lack of skilled immigration, and international concerns about its soft power status, human rights issues, lack of hard power capabilities through a global military alliance system, and the dominance of the U.S. dollar in global trade.^[14]

There has been a greater focus on China's burgeoning economic activity on the global stage, in particular when in competition with the United States: for example, China's significant expansion in countries that have joined the Beijing-based Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank in contrast to similar Western institutions, along with the Belt and Road Initiative and China's role in the worldwide groundings of the Boeing 737 MAX.^[15][16] It has also been argued that there is likely to be growing competition in future between two highly dominant countries, the United States and China, while others begin to lag behind economically.^[17] It has also been predicted that China may overtake the United States as the world's largest economy in the 2020s.^[18] Due to the country's rapidly developing AI industry, China has also been referred to as an "AI superpower".^[19][20][21]

However, some have questioned how long the pace of China's economic growth can continue, with emphasis placed not only on the country's very large but ageing and shrinking population of over 1.4 billion, but also the long-term effects of pollution that have accumulated during China's rapid industrialisation.^[22][23] Also, China has yet to prove attractive to skilled immigration from outside the country to the same extent as the United States and other countries.^[24] A supposed lack of soft power is another aspect of contention to China's status as a potential superpower.^[25][26]

The U.S. military considers China to be the most capable and formidable adversary of the United States.^[27][28] Political scientists and others have argued that China's ties with Russia and Central Asia could see the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation become the "NATO of the East".^[29] It has also been argued that the absence of the U.S. from the Indo-Pacific region during the early-2000s war on terror has allowed the Chinese to actively challenge the United States as the pre-eminent power in the region.^[30] Still others have stressed that China is still surrounded by potentially hostile nations and that it lacks the friends and allies necessary for it to truly compete with the United States.^[31]

European Union

The European Union (EU) has been called a potential superpower, mainly due to its economic power and global political influence. Factors highlighted include its large population, the size and global reach of its combined economy, and the comparative unpopularity of US foreign policy.^{[32][33][34][35][36]}

Despite lacking a cohesive military of its own, with military capabilities still in the hands of individual member states, it has been argued that this is irrelevant when considering the status of the EU as a potential superpower.^[37][38] Others disagree, saying that its lack of a unified military structure compared to the United States undermines its claim to be a potential superpower.^[39][40][41]

There have also been conflicting views about the EU's lack of political integration. Some have argued that its "lower profile" diplomacy and emphasis on the rule of law represent a new kind of geopolitical influence that fulfills the political requirements for consideration as a superpower, rather than simply failing to meet them.^[33][42] Others however argue that its lack of a centralised foreign or defence policy leaves its effectiveness uncertain when compared to that of a more politically integrated union of states such as the United States,^[43][44] and it has even been argued that the EU is little more than an extension of a Europe reliant on or dominated by the United States.^[45]

The European Union has been called a "regulatory superpower" due to the Brussels effect, which suggests that regulations and standards applicable in the EU will also be adopted by numerous countries outside the EU over time.^[46][47][48]

India

India has seen considerable coverage of its potential of becoming a superpower. Multiple opinions have pointed towards India's rapid economic development as a reason for it to be considered a potential superpower. India overtook China in economic growth in 2015,when it registered 7.5% growth in comparison to China's 6.8%.

Some commentators made the prediction of India becoming a superpower by 2020, most notably based on A. P. J. Abdul Kalam's book India 2020.^[49][50] In 2019, BJP politician Amit Shah claimed that India would emerge as a superpower in the next 5 years under the rule of Narendra Modi.^[51]

Economists and researchers at Harvard University have projected India's 7% projected annual growth rate through 2024 would continue to put it ahead of China, making India the fastest growing economy in the world.^[52][53] Over and above, India also has the advantage of having a very large and growing young population with a median age of 28, compared to China's median age of 40.^[54] In 2003 Goldman Sachs predicted that India would become an economic superpower by 2050.^[55] In a 2024 interview with The Independent, former UK PM Tony Blair predicted that by 2050 India would be a 'global superpower' along with the United States and China.^[56] In 2025 Former UK PM Rishi Sunak suggested India is an 'economic superpower'.^[57]

While India’s economic growth has continued, some analysts note that inequality remains high and that its trade potential is more limited compared to regional competitors such as China. Although India briefly became the world’s fastest-growing major economy in 2015, its growth rate has fallen below China’s since 2018.^[a] Since 2021, India's economy has grown faster than China's and^[63] remains the fastest growing major economy.^{[64][65][66][67][68]}

It has also been argued that India's government and bureaucracy is geared against emerging as a superpower, with it being argued that it "does very little collective thinking about its long-term foreign policy goals, since most of the strategic planning that takes place within the government happens on an individual level".^[69]

Originally India was generally a service sector economy with focus generally on traditional call centre BPO work, now largely handled by the Philippines and other Southeast Asian countries and has now shifted focus to high-value software development, consultancy, engineering, and research oriented services.^[70] The country is also focusing on manufacturing having started manufacturing of iPhones and other electronics.

In April 2025, the Indian economy temporarily surpassed Japan to become the fourth-largest economy in the world in terms of GDP (nominal).^[71][72] In November 2025, the IMF gave the Indian economy a letter 'C' grade, mentioning that Indian national accounts and inflation data is not accurately recording the informal sector and people's spending patterns.^[73]

India hosts more than half of the world's Global Capability Centres (GCCs), which perform product engineering and R&D functions.^[74] It is home to about 20% of global semiconductor chip design engineers and, as of early 2025, has an estimated 4.3 million software engineers, accounting for roughly 14.7% of the global software engineering workforce.^[75][76]

India is a nuclear triad, and is ranked 4th in the Global Firepower Index.^[77] India is a 'Middle Power' according to the Lowy Institute.^[78]The country is undergoing a major modernization program for its Air Force and Navy.

Comparative statistics of current candidates

Country/Union	Population[79][80]	Area (km2)	GDP (nominal)[81]		GDP (PPP)[81]		Military expenditures (Int$ billion)[82]	HDI[83]	UN Security Council veto power
			(USD million)	Per capita ($)	(Int$ million)	Per capita (Int$)
China	1,411,778,724	9,596,961	19,231,705	13,687	39,440,000	21,291	314	0.797 (high)	Yes
European Union	449,206,209	4,233,262	19,991,535	44,387	28,044,742	53,960	337.8[84]	0.915 (very high)	(France)
India	1,456,604,163	3,287,263	4,187,017	2,878	17,360,000	10,475	86.1	0.685 (medium)	No
United States	346,238,081	9,525,067	30,507,217	89,105	30,337,162	75,180	997	0.938 (very high)	Yes

Former candidates

See also

Notes

References

External links

• Centre for Rising Powers, University of Cambridge Archived 2019-05-04 at the Wayback Machine
• China on the World Stage from the Dean Peter Krogh Foreign Affairs Digital Archives
• Blast off: India hopes Mars rocket will enhance its superpower status by The Times
• China and India: The Power of Two by Harvard Business Review
• The End of Pax Americana: How Western Decline Became Inevitable by The Atlantic
• Why The U.S. Remains The World's Unchallenged Superpower